Allgoodnews,certainly。

ButthesameforcesthathavehelpedliftAfricainrecentyears–globalisationandincreasedforeigninvestment–havealsomadeitincreasinglyvulnerabletotheimpactoftheglobaleconomicdownturn。

Thecorrelationbetweendevelopedmarketsandfrontieroneshasincreasedfrom0。

28inlate2000to0。

60today,accordingtoStandardPoors(where1wouldmeantheymoveinstepwitheachother)。

NigerianandKenyanbanks,forexample,maynothavebeenexposedtosubprimemortgagesecurities。

ButasinvestorsonWallStreetandintheCityhavesufferedhugelosseselsewhere,theyvepulledmoneyoutofpreviouslyhotmarkets,includingAfrica。

Forexample,investorwithdrawalswerebehindthetemporarysuspensionofNewStarsHeartofAfricafundlastweek;illiquidmarketsmeantthatfundmanagerJamieAllsopwasunabletosellsufficientsharesquicklyenoughtoraisethecashtorepayinvestors。

Allsophopestogetthefundrunningagainassoonaspossible,butthisdemonstratesthedangersofbeinginvestedinanilliquidmarketatatimewheninvestorsvaluesafetyaboveallelse。

AsDariusMcDermottofChelseaFinancialServicessays,Wehaveariskscaleof1-10,andAfricawouldcomeinat11。

Butitsnotjustaboutriskaversion–morethan80%ofAfricanexportsareprimaryandsemi-processedcommodities,astheEconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU)tellsBusinessAfricaSelect。

Thatsbadnewswhencommoditypricesaresliding。

TourismrevenueswillsuffertooasWesternconsumerscutback。

TheEIUreckonsthatgrowthinsub-SaharanAfricawillslowfrom4。

8%in2007to3。

6%thisyear,then2%in2009。

Africaisworthwatchingforthelongrun,butfornow,itisonlyrealistictoanticipatevolatileandunpredictablemarketsin2009。

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